Game Preview: Houston vs. Texas Tech

Game Details

Good Guys: Texas Tech Red Raiders (2-0, 0-0)
Bad Guys: Houston Cougars (2-0, 0-0)
Where: Galaxy Stadium | Lubbock, Texas
When: Saturday, September 18th @ 7:00 pm
TV & Streaming: FOX
Radio: The Varsity Network
The Line: Texas Tech -7.5
Game Notes: Texas Tech | Houston
Weather Report: Mostly Sunny, High 94 Low 72

Key Players for Houston

#1 QB Conner Weigman (6-3/210): Weigman has been stellar, completing 69% of his passes for 10 yards an attempt with 4 touchdowns and 1 pick, good for 215 yards a game. He’s driving the bus, plus a bit more. I feel like Weigman has been a runner in previous seasons and he’s not necessarily doing that, but he has the athleticism to do so.

#21 RB Makhi Hughes (6-0/210): Very talented runner, 5.6 yards a carry on 12.5 carries a game good for 71 yards. He’s the most explosive of the group of runners, but Zane Smith has been pretty good thus far as well as Re’Shaun Sanford II.

#0 WR Amare Thomas (6-0/205) & #9 TE Patrick Overmyer (6-5/230): Thomas and Overmyer receive a ton of targets, Thomas has 11 receptions for 14.73 yards a catch with 2 touchdowns and Overmyer has 8 for 12.5 yards a catch. Watch out for Koby Young as well who is a deep threat, 25 yards a catch.

#56 LG Shadre Hurst (6-2/#) & #52 C Anthony Boswell (6-2/#): Hurst and Bowell form a really nice 1-2 punch on the offensive line and my guess is that when watching, they’ll try to get these to roadpavers going. Houston likes to run the ball, 7th in the nation at 314 yards a game right now.

#18 DT Khalil Laufau (6-3/290): NOt a ton of stats thus far, but Laufau was supposed to be an absolute rock in the middle. And without having seen every game, that might be true, but he’s a load in the middle.

#4 LB Brandon Mack (6-4/245): Mack plays that hybrid linebacker and rush position, 5 sacks last year and 33 tackles last year.

#6 S Jordan Allen (5-11/200) & #2 # Jalen Mayo (6-2/190): Allen is big safety with 1 pick already and 4 passes broken up while May is a lot more active, 9 tackles, a sack, a forced fumble, and 2 passes broken up.

Seth C’s Thoughts on the Game

Keep Stacking Games with that DL.

A Challenge for the OL. Statistically, Texas Tech should have an advantage in the rushing game, but maybe that depends on which advanced stats that you wre looking at. I’m using two sets of advanced stats, the first is from Sharp Football and the second is from CFB Depth. I thought the line played well against ACU, but that’s not saying a ton. The game against Oregon State was a bit more rough and if I were to ask for any one thing on the offense it would be for them to fix this shit and play better. They are capable.

Revamping the Receivers. This isn’t going to happen, and this is just me speaking into the void, but I’d absolutely change the receivers and I’d absolutely put in quicker smaller receiver into the slot and move Eakin outside. Watching Oregon State have a small receiver like Legree be able to take advantage of matchups shouldn’t have been revolutionary, but it sort of was. Malcolm Simmons or Jalen Jones, who we have barely seen play it feels like, would seemingly be perfect in these roles. And this isn’t about replacing Eakin, but seeing him body a defender last week makes me think that I’d love to see him outside and see those other two create some space issues for defenders. I know that this isn’t as easy as snapping my fingers and making it so, but I’d absolutely think about getting more quickness out there.

Obvious Stuff. These are obvious things, like starting J’Koby Williams over Cameron Dickey. That’s easy. I would probably not play Terrance Carter if he isn’t 100%. I’d probably also play a ton of Jett Carpenter and tell him that I need him to block like his life depended on it and the receptions would be gravy. I need the offensive line to block the G.D. tails off and be the aggressor because the Houston defense is going to bring the juice. Will Hammond isn’t healthy and the offensive line has to know that they have a duty to give him at least 5 seconds. That’s the deal. No plays off. All of these things are fixable and doable. It is effort and being smart.

How Does the Secondary Cope. Houston isn’t a great passing team, but they’re plenty good and they have dangerous players that can get down the field. What’s a beleagured secondary to do? I know that it’s next man up, but that doesn’t work in reality and if 2025 taught us anything, it is that a great pass rush is the best deodorant for a not so great secondary. There are times that I feel that Adam Trick is getting close to the quarterback and just missing. Hopefully he’ll hit tonight. The medical staff typically doesn’t release you to play if you’re good to go, they don’t seem to play injured players. My guess is that White is going to be ready and maybe he adds a real threat to speed up Weigman’s decision making. Weigman did throw 9 interceptions last year, so he can be prone to making mistakes. Granted, I think he’s better this year, but pressure creates bad plays.

Best Players Need to MAKE Plays. For me, the linebacker trio is the best group on defense and if that’s true, then they have to really start making some plays. They’ve been okay and they have limited the opposing defenses, but they have to start creating opportunities for the offense.

Flipped. What if Houston and Texas Tech had flipped flopped on when they played Oregon State? Would you feel any different about the game? As an aside, I think that Oregon State is going to prove to be a good football team by teh end of the year and we won’t look at this win as a fluke.

Injury Update.

OUT
S #0 Mikal Harrison-Pilot (downgraded from doubtful)
S #5 Oliver Miles III (downgraded from doubtful)
CB #16 Ashton Hampton
CB #27 Amier Boyd
OL #77 Elias Gillen

QUESTIONABLE
OLB #2 Trey White
TE #7 Terrance Carter Jr.
S #7 Brenden Jordan

PROBABLE
WR #2 Kenny Johnson

Video Notes

Going with the Oregon State video since the Souther video didn’t help a ton . . . Houston is going to blitz in all types of situations, passing or running and that could create matchup advantages for Texas Tech, but could also mean disaster with a quarterback in Hammond that is not mobile at the moment . . . we’ve already talked about Overmeyer and how Weigman loves throwing him the ball. He’s going to be a huge part of the offense . . . the tight end is also a big part of the blocking scheme . . . there can be big ass holes in the secondary if you get there quick enough . . . Houston’s front 4 is fine, but they can be held (asking the OL to not literally hold), this is not the ’85 Bears . . . what makes the defense particularly dangerous is the blitz . . . stay in your lanes defensive line . . .

Uniforms:

Stats: Quick bit of fun stuff about me. So I had to get a new computer over the summer I think. The old computer had Microsoft Word, Excel, etc. Got the new computer, but as you have probably figured out, I don’t do subscriptions or paying for things that I don’t need to pay for, so I’m using the Libre Office Suite. I haven’t spent enough time with it to figure out how to do the spider graphs so that they look like last year, but the data is still the same, just backwards! Never underestimate my ability to be cheap/frugal.

📊🏈WEEK 3 ADVANCED STATS PREVIEWS

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Houston @ Texas Tech
SMU @ Louisville
LSU @ Ole Miss
North Texas @ Texas State pic.twitter.com/aT7TvOSClJ

— parker fleming (@statsowar) September 16, 2026

Definitions:
PPA (Predicted Points Added): It looks at the down, distance, and field position before a run play and compares it to the down, distance, and field position after the play. Passing is usually more efficient than running in modern football. Rushing PPA helps analysts see which teams actually run effectively instead of just wasting downs. For passing, a successful completion that gains a first down or moves closer to scoring adds positive points.

Havoc Rate: Bill Connelly—that measures how often a defense makes a disruptive play.It is calculated by taking total havoc plays and dividing them by total defensive snaps.

Line Yards: Line Yards is an advanced football statistic that estimates how many rushing yards an offensive line produces on a run play, separate from the running back’s own skill.

Stuff Rate: Stuff rate in American football is the percentage of rushing plays that a defense stops at or behind the line of scrimmage.

Power Success: Power Success is an advanced football metric that measures the percentage of short-yardage running plays where an offense successfully gets a first down or a touchdown.

FEI: (Fremeau Efficiency Index team ratings) Opponent-adjusted possession efficiency data representing the scoring advantage per non-garbage possession a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent

Poll & Prediction

Quiz Maker

I’m nervous about this game. I am worried about Will Hammond and how he will play given his bum knee (which is not his fault, he’s doing everything he can to play). I have a feeling that the defense will be better than last week, but I am worried about the offense keeping pace. If had to, I’d take those points and think this will be a field goal game that could go either way. I will always err on the side of good guys, but my confidence level is a 1 out of 5.