Game Preview and Open Thread: Iowa State vs. Texas Tech

The Red Raiders look for a huge upset at home against the Cyclones.

Date: Monday, February 20th
Time: 8:00 pm
Good Guys: Texas Tech Red Raiders (17-10, 5-9)
Bad Guys: Iowa State Cyclones (17-9, 9-5)
Location: United Supermarkets Arena | Lubbock, Texas
TV/Stream: ESPNU (WatchESPN App)
Radio/Stream: 97.3 FM/104.3 FM/950 AM

POINT GUARD Keenan Evans (6-3/180) 15.7 / 3.1*
SHOOTING GUARD Niem Stevenson (6-6/205) 8.7 / 3.5
SMALL FORWARD Justin Gray (6-6/210) 8.5 / 5.3
POWER FORWARD Zach Smith (6-8/220) 13.0 / 7.5
CENTER Anthony Livingston (6-9/260) 10.6 / 3.8
SIXTH MAN Aaron Ross (6-8/225) 9.7 / 2.8
SEVENTH MAN Devon Thomas (6-0/170) 4.7 / 2.2*
EIGHTH MAN Shadell Millinghaus (6-2/195) 4.1 / 2.2
NINTH MAN Matthew Temple (6-10/240) 2.0 / 1.2
POINT GUARD Monte Morris (6-3/175) 16.0 / 6.0*
SHOOTING GUARD Matt Thomas (6-5/193) 11.6 / 4.1
SMALL FORWARD Nazareth Mitrou-Long (6-4/203) 15.9 / 4.8
POWER FORWARD Deonte Burton (6-5/250) 14.3 / 6.7
CENTER Solomon Young (6-8/240) 4.1 / 2.9
SIXTH MAN Darrell Bowie (6-8/218) 6.1 / 4.5
SEVENTH MAN Donovan Jackson (6-2/175) 6.2 / 1.4*
EIGHTH MAN Nick Weiler-Babb (6-5/200) 4.5 / 3.8

* Assists.

1. KenPom has Iowa State as the 24th best team in the nation, 30th in AdjO and 29th in AdjD. They’re more well-balanced than they have been in recent years, or at least that’s I recall. They’ve typically been a great offensive team and not-so-great defensive team. Despite losing to WVU, Texas Tech is 36th overall, 36th in AdjO and 68th in AdjD.

2. Iowa State is on a bit of a streak, having won their last three in relatively easy fashion, whipping up on Oklahoma, Kansas and TCU, although only Kansas State was on the road. I think that this is largely because of the better defense that Iowa State is playing. If find their lineup to be one that is strange in that they don’t really play with a power forward and yet they still have a better rebounding margin than Texas Tech.

3. Texas Tech played a game out of character against West Virginia, turning the ball over and getting severely out-rebounded. It’s usually close for Texas Tech and not by 13 rebounds. I think Texas Tech has some advantages against Iowa State and I think the match-up between Morris and Evans is going to be one of the best we’ve seen in a while.

4. Iowa State is getting 1.5 points right now. Here’s some numbers. Iowa State is 7-5 against the spread on the road while Texas Tech is 8-5 at home. That’s a slight advantage. Iowa State is 9-4 as a favorite and Texas Tech is 2-7 as an underdog. That’s not good. Iowa State is only 6-6 on the road this year, while Texas Tech is 15-2.

5. The last time these two teams played, it was a relatively close game. Texas Tech didn’t really play very well at all, shooting 38% from the field and 28% from the three point line while losing 63-56. That was one of the first road tests for Texas Tech and I’d expect some friendlier rims for Texas Tech at home and the ability to put up some points on the Cyclones. Texas Tech is pretty desperate at this point, needing all of the wins they can get while Iowa State is in a three-way tie for second play. They’re playing to finish strong too. I’ll still take Texas Tech here in a close game.


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