Let’s Talk About Stats: West Virginia vs. Texas Tech

We statistically preview the Mountaineers and Red Raiders.

Football Study Hall

Please check out Bill Connelly’s statistical profiles for a full detail of each team.

Texas Tech Offense vs. West Virginia Defense

I think Bill’s numbes really prove out what we’re watching. The Texas Tech offense has been very efficient, but not explosive and hasn’t been blessed with terrific field position (i.e. not a ton of great turnovers of killer returns). Explosiveness is usually one of those things that make good offenses great, and it will be interesting for me to see how this plays out over the course of the season (especially against TCU).

Texas Tech Defense vs. West Virginia Offense

The Texas Tech defense is making up ground, but they’ll be going up against a very good/great West Virginia offense. They really sort of check all of the boxes, very efficient and very explosive. They hit and they hit big, so that’s a dangerous combination. The one thing that slows an opposing offense is holding onto the ball yourself, so I wonder how that plays into the equation.

Other Stats

College Football Analytics: Texas Tech jumped up quite a bit here, with Texas Tech ranked 21st overall and West Virginia ranked 14th. As far as predictions are concerned, CFS gives Texas Tech a 51% chance of beating West Virginia (for comparison purposes, they gave Texas Tech a 39% last week against Oklahoma State). So this is basically a toss-up game. And if you look further in the schedule, Texas Tech essentially has 6 games within a 49% to 56% chance of winning, so there are essentially 6 toss-up games. The only wins above 60% are Kansas and Kansas State. I think, personally, that this idea that there’s 6 games that could go either way is probably pretty accurate and either team will likely be favored by a slim margin. And since we’re talking predictions, Bill Connelly’s predictions are a bit more black/white, giving Texas Tech only a 33% to beat West Virginia, and of the remaining games, only Iowa State, Texas and Baylor are probably toss-up games, with losses coming to TCU and Oklahoma.

FEI College Football Ratings: Texas Tech has moved up to 36th overall (this says that it’s been updated through 9/24, but the record for Texas Tech still says 2-1, however, this missing win/loss appears to be across the board) and West Virginia is ranked 29th.

ESPN’s Football Power Index: Has Texas Tech ranked 18th overall, which is a pretty big jump for the Red Raiders, while West Virginia is one spot behind them at 18. Much has been made about ESPN’s FPI, which essentially has Texas Tech favored in every game going forward (except for Oklahoma) and just like the projections above, these can change on a dime. They’re fun, but don’t put too much stock into them.

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