Football

Let’s Talk About Stats: Kansas vs. Texas Tech

It’s the stats.

Football Study Hall

Please check out Bill Connelly’s statistical profiles for a full detail of each team.

Texas Tech Offense vs. Kansas Defense

Well, the Kansas defense isn’t as bad as the offense, not by a wide margin. The Jayhawks are bad about allowing big plays, which may be great for how Texas Tech’s offense has played as of late. What Kansas is good at is overall efficiency, they’re good on a down-to-down perspective, but not great in giving up big plays and once you get into that red zone area, they haven’t been great. Texas Tech’s offense dropped a bit after the TCU game, but I’ll take it regardless, most teams will drop a bit after playing TCU.

Texas Tech Defense vs. Kansas Offense

I’ve already written up the “What to Watch” portion of the 7 Points preview and I noticed that on plays where the Jayhawks score, they’re actually really well designed plays and that sort of plays into how Kansas is a top 25 explosive team, when it works it works, but between the goal line and the other team’s red zone, they’re not good in pretty much any metric.

Other Stats

College Football Analytics: Texas Tech is ranked 24th overall, just one spot ahead of Houston. The Jayhawks are ranked 96th overall. The CFA projections state that there is a 73% chance of beating Kansas, a 52% chance of beating Iowa State, a 48% chance of beating Oklahoma, a 56% chance of beating Texas, a 60% chance of beating Kansas State and a 58% chance of beating Baylor. Kansas State and Baylor are both moving into that toss-up range (which is 5% on either side of 50%) for me which isn’t great news, but they’ve both played better football as of late.

FEI College Football Ratings: Texas Tech is ranked 30th overall with Kansas ranked 91st (again, the records are not correct, but the top of the site says that it is updated as of 10/8/2018).

ESPN’s Football Power Index: Your Red Raiders are ranked 23rd overall with Kansas ranked 78th overall. As of this morning, with Iowa State’s recent showing, the ESPN FPI is predicting Kansas as a win, with Iowa State and Oklahoma as losses, only a 45% chance to beat the Cyclones and a 30% chance to beat Oklahoma. The final three games are predicted as wins, Texas 54%, Kansas State 71% and Baylor 72%.

My Team’s Better:

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