Texas Tech rebounded with a much-needed win in Morgantown. It’s still a shaky road to bowl eligibility, but another win on Saturday would leave fans somewhat optimistic. The Kansas and Baylor losses (and to a lesser extent, Arizona) really sting now. It’s easy for fans to say “coulda, shoulda, woulda”, but Tech could pretty easily be 6-3 with a chance to do a little more damage down the stretch.
ESPN’s Football Power Index
|Team||National Rank||FPI||Big 12 Title Odds (%)
The FPI score is the expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. Western Michigan is the most average team in the country according to FPI, listed at 0.2.
Below are the odds of victory for Texas Tech against each remaining opponent.
Texas Tech Win Probability (%)
Below are the odds that Texas Tech finishes with all possible season records. FPI currently projects Tech to finish 5.1-6.9.
SP+ measures the same thing as FPI; expected margin of victory against an average team on a neutral field. For reference, SP+ has Duke and Houston as the most average teams in the country with an SP+ of -0.2. SP+ gives Texas Tech a 39 percent chance to beat TCU and has the Red Raiders as 5-point underdogs.
Adam McClintock ranks all 130 FBS teams every week and predicts the margin of victory for each FBS vs. FBS matchup. He is almost identical to SP+, giving Tech a 40 percent chance to win and lists the Red Raiders as 5-point underdogs.
Sagarin’s prediction is closer to FPI, giving Texas Tech a 46 percent chance to win and lists them as slight 1 or 2-point underdogs.
The oddsmakers in Vegas are pretty close to SP+ and McClintock on this one. TCU is a 3-point favorite and is favored as -160 (bet $160 to win $100) on the money line, which are implied odds of 61.5 percent.