Game Preview: Texas Tech vs. Oregon State

Game Details

Good Guys: Texas Tech Red Raiders (1-0, 0-0)
Bad Guys: Oregon State Beavers (0-1, 0-0)
Where: Reser Stadium | Corvallis, Oregon
When: Saturday, September 12th @ 6:30 pm
TV & Streaming: CBS
Radio: The Varsity Network
The Line: Texas Tech -26.5
Game Notes: Texas Tech | Oregon State
Weather Report: PM Rain, High 66 Low 53

Key Players for Oregon State

#2 QB Braden Atkinson (6-1/208): A really nice debut for the sophomore quarterback, 29 of 48 for 376, 7.8 yards per attempt with a touchdown and no picks. Atkinson maybe held onto the ball too long, he was sacked 4 times for -31 yards, which isn’t great and something to keep in mind. Atkinson threw the ball all over the place, to 9 different receivers over the course of the Houston game, so he’s not necessarily showing favortism.

#12 WR Jesse Legree (5-10/172): An actual debut by a freshman, Legree had 5 catches for 136 yards and if you watch the game video he made some plays. Not necessarily big, but effective his first time out.

#44 DE Takari Hickle (6-3/270): REally good performance from Hickle where he had 9 tackles and 1.5 tackles for a loss. I’ll be interested to see how the offensive line deals with someone with a bit more juice.

#2 LB Aiden Sullivan (6-1/230): A standout linebacker, also finishing with 9 tackles against Houston. It’s just one game, but Sullivan was a standout last year, 7 tackles for a loss and 5 quarterback hurries, so they will send him off the edge. I know this is a new defensive staff, but that ability to make things happen from the linebacker spot is still there.

#8 S Sailasa Vadrawale III (5-11/185): Vadrawale did pick off Houston last week and not necessarily a huge game, but he did have 5 tackles and the fact that he’s not having to make a ton of plays maybe speaks to an improved Oregon State defense (usually a safety making all of the plays is a safety making a lot of plays down the field).

Seth C’s Thoughts on the Game

I’d be nice to have Brenden Jordan This Week. Oregon state threw the ball 48 times against Houston and I’d expect that to continue against Texas Tech. Texas Tech is going to want to pin their ears back and absolutely go after Atkinson this week. Now, with 48 attempts Atkinson had just 7.8 yards per attempt and just 1 touchdown with 0 pick. Regardless, the point of this post is that it sure would be nice to have Jordan in this game. He’s put the team in a bit of a predicament, going from being the leader of the secondary to being on the bench with young safeties all around. That’s not to say that they can’t do the job, but the whole point of having a veteran safety is for the added experience, of which Texas Tech cannot take advantage of.

Really Run the Ball. Oregon State gave up 228 yards rushing last week to Houston and the Cougars averaged 5.6 yards a carry. I thought Texas Tech did a good job of running the ball, but maybe could have done more in the 2nd half. Hammond needs to look for his opportunities and also be game aware of situations. Don’t force a bad pass on 2nd and 1 when you’ve been driving the ball. TAke those opportunities, but also rely on those running backs. They’re all so talented.

Improved Offensive Line. I thought the offensive line was generally really good for the entirety of the game. Sure, some missed plays, but overall I was pretty pleased. I felt that Howard Sampson was more mobile and I’d like to see that group improve from last week to this week. It seems as if having a team that’s good in the trenches is good for playing on the road and I’m not ready to declare victory, but after one game, I like where this is trending. Not only that, but Oregon State wasn’t trending in the right direction, giving up 228 yards on 41 attempts and 5.6 yards an attempt.

Clean Up Defensive Line Play. Except for Jamond Mathis, I was a bit disappointed in the defensive line play. More than that, I think I was spoiled by the play of the defensive line last year and how good Lee Hunter was game after game as well as the Bailey-Height combination. There were too many running lanes from a disorganized rush and other than the Mathis pressure, the ACU quarterback was pretty unscathed. That can’t be what happens this week. Give that OSU quarterback time and this could be a barn burner.

Hammond Needs to Make a Jump. Aside from coaching, it would be my opinion that Hammond needs to be better about recognizing those opportunities. Hammond was great in relief last year, but even then you sort of saw a quarterback that wasn’t quite fully baked. The nuance and the recognition, from the deep throws where only his guy can go get it was ssomethign we really didn’t see at all and when there’s not something there, don’t force it. It took Behren Morton 4 years to learn that and that’s not a luxury Texas Tech has. Be smart, take calculated risks, and know when to fold’em.

Video Notes

The first sack was just terrible pass protection, the defender wasn’t even touched . . . expect more coverage to keep the top on the offense and keep the offense from going deep . . . the huge pass to Legree was Houston simply not covering him . . . the first Oregon State touchdown, the receivers were covered and the QB just scampers in for a touchdown, a nice read and he does have legs . . . Oregon State might have a missed tackle problem . . . the Beavers will consistently rush at least 4 pretty much no matter what, they aren’t dropping 8 . . . when it’s 26-7 it looks to be pretty much over for OSU, they are pinned deep, but they make some plays and really battle back, a very aware team, getting out of bounds when they can, even in the 3rd quarter . . . a Houston interception when they look like they are about to score is what really flips the game and gives OSU new life . . . better have good coverage on the Oregon State tight end #80 . . . there will be deep plays available for Texas Tech and will have to be accurate and take some shots . . . Houston’s last touchdown looked like a pretty blatant hold . . .

Uniforms:

Week 2 Ŧhreads ❄️ pic.twitter.com/3j8dlwNRHR

— Texas Tech Football (@TexasTechFB) September 10, 2026

Stats: I decided to go back to the spider graphs and the closer you are to the middle the better off you are as a team. So as of right now, based on preseason things, Texas Tech is statistically better, but a lot of 2025 is baked into these stats and I think that until after week 3 then this will be true. I believe you can click on these graphs for a better view.

Definitions:
PPA (Predicted Points Added): It looks at the down, distance, and field position before a run play and compares it to the down, distance, and field position after the play. Passing is usually more efficient than running in modern football. Rushing PPA helps analysts see which teams actually run effectively instead of just wasting downs. For passing, a successful completion that gains a first down or moves closer to scoring adds positive points.

Havoc Rate: Bill Connelly—that measures how often a defense makes a disruptive play.It is calculated by taking total havoc plays and dividing them by total defensive snaps.

Line Yards: Line Yards is an advanced football statistic that estimates how many rushing yards an offensive line produces on a run play, separate from the running back’s own skill.

Stuff Rate: Stuff rate in American football is the percentage of rushing plays that a defense stops at or behind the line of scrimmage.

Power Success: Power Success is an advanced football metric that measures the percentage of short-yardage running plays where an offense successfully gets a first down or a touchdown.

FEI: (Fremeau Efficiency Index team ratings) Opponent-adjusted possession efficiency data representing the scoring advantage per non-garbage possession a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent

Poll & Prediction

QuizMaker

Make sure and vote. I’m somewhat in the same place I was last week regarding this game. I think Texas Tech is going to win, but that’s a pretty hefty spread and I think Oregon State is a decent team. The bets are actually in favor of Oregon State as well, 52%, which makes me think that even though the spread almost immediately dropped 3 points, that’s still a bit much. Until I see the defense, I’m a bit nervous about how things will go, although I fully admit that I may be trying to credit the Oregon State quarterback too much after a good game. Maybe that’s just respect. Also, the weather has changed a bit in that there’s expected rain so maybe this is a bit of a ground game rather than a passing game.