The final week of the season is here, and I hope all of you have enjoyed tracking the various probabilities throughout the past few months as much as I have. This will be the final post of this nature, followed by a recap of all the data and an analysis of BPI’s predictive accuracy once the season concludes.
Texas Tech has achieved what Chris Beard wanted it to; to be relevant in February and March. With one week left in the season, the Red Raiders are tied for the Big 12 lead and have an opportunity to clinch their first ever Big 12 championship.
Let’s start the analysis like we always do, by comparing how the Big 12 stacks up nationally according to their BPI ranking:
| BPI Rank | Team | BPI |
| 11 | Texas Tech | 16.4 |
| 14 | Iowa State | 14.1 |
| 16 | Kansas | 14 |
| 28 | Texas | 12.2 |
| 30 | Kansas State | 11.7 |
| 36 | Baylor | 10.3 |
| 41 | Oklahoma | 9.9 |
| 46 | TCU | 8.8 |
| 107 | West Virginia | 3.8 |
| 125 | Oklahoma State | 2.9 |
Here are Texas Tech’s odds in its remaining two regular season games:
| Opponent | Chance to Win (%) |
| Texas | 81.3 |
| @ Iowa State | 44 |
With just two games left, the calculations are much simpler to conduct. Below are the odds for each of the four remaining possible outcomes:
| Outcome |
Odds to Occur
|
| W Texas, L Iowa State | 45.5% |
| L Texas, W Iowa State | 8.3% |
| Win both | 35.8% |
| Lose both | 10.5% |
Adding together the odds that Texas Tech splits in one form or fashion, below are the odds that they finish with each remaining possible conference record:
| Big 12 Record | Probability (%) |
| 14-4 | 35.8 |
| 13-5 | 53.8 |
| 12-6 | 10.5 |
Here’s how the Big 12 title race is shaping up according to BPI:
| Team | Chance to win Big 12 | Projected Big 12 wins |
| Texas Tech | 71% | 13.3 |
| Kansas State | 68% | 13.2 |
| Kansas | 19% | 12.4 |
Kansas State’s Outlook
| Opponent |
Chance to Win (%)
|
| @ TCU | 47.9 |
| Oklahoma | 72.3 |
Their odds to win out are 34.6 percent. Their odds to lose out are 14.4 percent. That makes their odds to split their remaining two games 51 percent.
Kansas’ Outlook
| Opponent | Chance to Win (%) |
| @ Oklahoma | 54.9 |
| Baylor | 81.1 |
Their odds to win out are 44.5 percent. Their odds to lose out are 8.5 percent. That makes their odds to split their remaining two games 47 percent.
My Two Cents
Texas Tech’s game in Ames could be historic for more reason than one. The Red Raiders have never won more than five Big 12 road games in a single season. This has been accomplished only twice: 1996-1997 and this season. It’s possible that Texas Tech could break the program’s single season road win record and clinch its first Big 12 title in one fell swoop. Fingers crossed…
Last week I mentioned that Seth Greenberg had been unnecessarily hard on Texas Tech. I was mistaken; it was Seth Davis. I’m sure national media types read this blog, so I’m sorry, Seth. My rage should have been directed at the other Seth.