My apologies for missing last week’s analytics outlook. Simply stated, life got in the way. But Tech went 3-1 the past two weeks including an unsuccessful but impressive comeback effort in Lawrence, and two tossup wins that have really bolstered the team’s resume; a win against West Virginia in Lubbock and a road win against the Horns.
We’ve eclipsed the halfway mark in Big 12 play, and the Red Raiders still have some favorable matchups ahead. Here’s what the analytics models have to say.
ESPN Basketball Power Index
BPI predicts the margin of victory for a team against an “average” team on a neutral court. Here is how the Big 12 stacks up nationally.
| National Rank | Team | BPI |
| 3 | Kansas | 17.5 |
| 5 | Baylor | 15.1 |
| 9 | W. Virginia | 14.1 |
| 23 | Texas Tech | 11.5 |
| 59 | Oklahoma | 7.8 |
| 70 | Texas | 6.7 |
| 73 | Oklahoma St | 6.6 |
| 74 | Iowa St | 6.5 |
| 95 | TCU | 5.1 |
| 96 | Kansas St | 5 |
BPI predicts individual game outcomes as well. Here are Texas Tech’s odds to win each conference game. I’ve added a column showing the difference in predicted win percentage from last week.
| Opponent | Chance to Win (%) |
| TCU | 86.5 |
| @ Oklahoma St | 58.5 |
| Kansas St | 87.2 |
| @ Iowa St | 56.4 |
| @ Oklahoma | 52.8 |
| Texas | 82.6 |
| @ Baylor | 21 |
| Kansas | 37.1 |
The average remaining win percentage is 60.3 percent, which we can use to calculate the probability of Texas Tech’s final conference record (I excluded possible records with less than a 3 percent chance of happening).
| Record | Probability (%) |
| 8-10 | 4 |
| 9-9 | 12.1 |
| 10-8 | 23 |
| 11-7 | 27.9 |
| 12-6 | 21.2 |
| 13-5 | 9.2 |
Ken Pomeroy
“KenPom” is one of the most widely cited and well respected models for college basketball. Here is how KenPom has the Big 12 through 10 conference games.
| National Rank | Team | KenPom Rating |
| 1 | Kansas | 30.1 |
| 5 | Baylor | 26.3 |
| 7 | W. Virginia | 24 |
| 20 | Texas Tech | 19 |
| 43 | Oklahoma | 14.4 |
| 65 | Texas | 11 |
| 69 | Iowa St | 10.6 |
| 76 | Oklahoma St | 10.2 |
| 79 | TCU | 9.5 |
| 88 | Kansas St | 8.7 |
Sagarin
Sagarin is a model that predicts outcomes for many sports, including college basketball. Here’s how it has the Big 12.
| National Rank | Team | Sagarin Rating |
| 1 | Kansas | 93.5 |
| 4 | Baylor | 91.7 |
| 18 | Texas Tech | 86.6 |
| 20 | W. Virginia | 86.3 |
| 37 | Oklahoma | 83.8 |
| 57 | Texas | 81.6 |
| 60 | Iowa St | 81.3 |
| 65 | Oklahoma St | 80.7 |
| 82 | Kansas St | 79.3 |
| 83 | TCU | 79.3 |
Haslametrics
Eric Haslam has a model that predicts outcomes for every team in the country if it were to play any other team in the country on a home court, at a neutral site, or on the road. Here are his score predictions for Texas Tech’s two games this week.
- Texas Tech 68, TCU 57
- Texas Tech 68.5, Oklahoma State 62.5
Tourney Talk
- NET rating: 25
- RPI rating: 52
- Bracket Matrix: 8 seed
- Best Wins: Louisville (NET 7) and West Virginia (NET 10)
- Worst Losses: DePaul (NET 66) and TCU (NET 73)
Analytics vs. Vegas
As I mentioned a couple weeks ago, I’ve been tracking how these models’ predictions perform against the spread in Vegas for Texas Tech’s Big 12 games (plus Kentucky). Here’s where they stand heading into this week:
- Texas Tech ATS: 6-5
- BPI ATS: 4-7
- Haslam ATS: 4-7
- Sagarin ATS: 7-4
To all the analytics haters: you win! You could probably flip a coin and do better than BPI or Haslam. For what it’s worth, Tech opened -11 vs. TCU. BPI has Tech favored by 11.5 and Haslam has Tech favored by 11, so there doesn’t appear to be much value there. Sagarin won’t release its projection until after this is sent for publishing. My two cents? Tech owes TCU some payback for being handed its worst loss of the season in Fort Worth. I expect an inspired and confident effort.