The Lede
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Texas Tech Red Raiders (6-6, 5-4) |
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California Golden Bears (6-6, 4-5) |
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December 16th @ 8:15 p.m. |
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Independence Stadium | Shreveport, Louisiana |
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Texas Tech -1.5 |
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ESPN | ESPN+ |
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48, Sunny |
The Golden Bears
There’s not a lot of news on the Bears, but I’ve done my best. Much like Texas Tech last year, California won 3-straight to end the season in order to arrive at the Independence Bowl:
The Bears were last bowl-eligible in 2019, when they defeated Illinois in the Redbox Bowl at Levi’s Stadium. This is the third time Wilcox has led Cal to a bowl game, and it’s the 25th bowl appearance in program history. Cal is 12-11-1 all-time in bowl games.
The Bears and Red Raiders have played one other time, also in a bowl game. Texas Tech defeated Cal 45-31 at the 2004 Holiday Bowl in San Diego.
Cal is led by running back Jaydn Ott, who led the Pac-12 with 1,260 rushing yards and scored 11 touchdowns. Redshirt freshman quarterback Fernando Mendoza has completed 62.4% of his passes for 1,447 yards and 13 touchdowns over eight games played, including starts in the past seven games. He was named the Pac-12 Freshman of the Week after leading the Bears to a 27-15 win over Stanford in the 126th Big Game.
We also get to know who earned post-season honors and are likely the Bears’ best players:
Cal linebacker Cade Uluave didn’t become a starter until late October after Jackson Sirmon’s season ended because of a biceps injury. Uluave took advantage of his opportunity so well that he was named the Pac-12 Freshman Defensive Player of the Year on Tuesday.
Though Uluave started only five games, he led Pac-12 freshmen in tackles with 58 and tackles for loss with 6.5. He had two fumble recoveries, one of which he returned 51 yards for a touchdown in the Bears’ 42-39 win over Washington State. Uluave, who’s from Utah, also had two interceptions, one on a Hail Mary on the final play of the victory over the Cougars.
Sophomore running back Jaydn Ott was the Bears’ lone first-team All-Pac-12 representative. Ott led the conference in rushing yards per game (114.6) and scored 14 total touchdowns.
Kicker Joshua Karty was the lone Stanford player named first-team All-Pac-12. It’s the second straight year he has earned that recognition. This season, Karty hit on 23 of 27 field-goal attempts, and only one of his four misses came from inside 50 yards. The 23 field goals set a school season record.
You’ll note that Cal has a terrific running back that rivals Tahj Brooks, but they also have a freshman linebacker, similar to Ben Roberts, in Cade Uluave:
Uluave made an impression on his coaches long before the Bears opened the season with a 58-21 win at North Texas on Sept. 2.
“In summer workouts and then in fall camp, you saw these flashes of a real instinctive, quick guy,” head coach Justin Wilcox said. “I remember early in camp thinking, ‘Well, we know this guy’s going to be on all the special teams right away.’ ”
Wilcox and defensive coordinator Peter Sirmon liked Uluave’s combination of passion for football and physical attributes.
“He’s an explosive athlete,” Sirmon said of Uluave, who’s listed at 6-foot-1, 230 pounds. “He can go from zero to fast about as fast as anybody that we have.”
Uluave credited Sirmon with helping him make the transition to Cal both on and off the field. During the summer, Sirmon had Uluave read Andy Andrews’ 2002 book on life lessons titled “The Traveler’s Gift.”
“You’re always trying to find ways to help guys,” Sirmon said. “What we find is there’s always a transitional period when kids are here for the first time. I think there are a lot of different ways to support players, and that was one that connected with Cade.”
The Red Raiders
And the news for Texas Tech is a bit light as well. I think that’s a result of there being so much recruiting info out there, these writers are spread pretty thin. Lubbock Avalanche-Journal’s Nathan Giese has a scouting report and predicts the eventual winner. Here’s a bit on when Texas Tech passes the ball.
After struggling through the end of the season with a bum shoulder, Behren Morton has had a couple weeks to heal up, which should be to Texas Tech’s benefit after his rough outing against Texas (a sentiment shared by the entire team). He threw three interceptions and totaled 88 yards on 19-for-36 against the Longhorns. Now the expected starter next season with Tyler Shough’s transfer to Louisville, Morton would like to have a good showing to close the season. He’ll have that opportunity against Cal, which has been susceptible to allowing big yards through the air. The Golden Bears are 127th out of 130 teams in passing defense, allowing 282.5 yards per game. Cal is also 110th in scoring defense (primarily from the secondary woes) but it should be noted just under 50% of the 392 points the team has allowed came against Washington, Oregon State, Utah and USC. Add in Oregon’s 63 points, about 66% of the points scored against Cal have come from five of the best teams in the country that featured four of the best quarterbacks in the country.
Dallas Morning News’ Justin Apodaca has 5 things to know about Cal:
Texas Tech’s defensive coordinator Tim DeRuyter, the former defensive coordinator at Cal from 2017-2020, and is facing his former head coach in Cal’s head coach Justin Wilcox.
The current defensive coordinator at Cal, Peter Sirmon, served as DeRuyter’s inside linebacker’s coach and co-defensive coordinator from 2018-2020 and is currently running the similar 4-2-5 multiple scheme on defense.
Tech’s offensive coordinator Zach Kittley and quarterback Behren Morton have both said that they see similar packages and ideals to what they see every day in practice against DeRuyter.
Stats
Advanced Stats: These two teams are about as evenly matched as they could be with slight advantages for Texas Tech at ESPN and Kelly Ford.
Texas Tech Offense vs. California Defense: We’ve talked about the offensive struggles with Texas Tech and if you are familiar with the chart, the closer you are to the middle the worse you are. Texas Tech doesn’t have any clear advantages over the California defense other than Texas Tech should be able to put together a decent drive and Texas Tech should have a slight advantage in the passing game. And remember, these numbers have an injured Morton and some of those Strong starts as well. This would be one of those times to point out that it appears that Cal’s defense is pretty darn good and will be very good against the run. Texas Tech has their work cut out for them.
Texas Tech Defense vs. California Offense: The Texas Tech defense also has some significant advantages here. Texas Tech has a clear advantage in the passing game, play efficiency, and explosive drives. Those are pretty big gaps. Cal is obviously pretty good at running the ball and with Texas Tech’s last outing against Texas, they should have something to prove. However, that defense will be without Hutchings (injured) and Cole (sitting out to prepare for the NFL Draft). People are going to have to step up here.
Odds and Ends
Texas Tech officially announced changes to the 2024 schedule, which Texas Tech really did a solid to Oregon to allow the Ducks to continue their rivalry game with Oregon State next year and Texas Tech will replace that game with Washington State:
The decision to push back the return game against the Ducks was made following a request from Oregon in order to preserve its annual rivalry game with Oregon State. The Red Raiders will now face Washington State on Sept. 7 in Pullman as part of a home-and-home agreement between the two schools that will see the Cougars return to Lubbock to start the 2032 season.
“After careful consideration, we have decided to grant the request from the University of Oregon to push back our return game of our home-and-home series,” Director of Athletics Kirby Hocutt said. “We look forward to traveling to Washington State next season as well as hosting seven games inside Jones AT&T Stadium.”
Personally, I think it’s good to do a solid for another team and program, maybe that good will could be a benefit for you later down the road.
Kind of a weird place for this, but FOX Sports has the current recruiting rankings for the Big 12 and Texas Tech sits atop the rankings right now:
There is plenty of work still to be done, but Texas Tech has a chance to secure its best class since finishing 19th nationally in 2011 under former coach Tommy Tuberville — before he switched careers and became a politician. The Red Raiders are enjoying a steady climb under well-regarded head coach Joey McGuire, whose first two classes ranked 43rd and 28th, respectively, over the last two cycles. Cracking the top 25 would be a major accomplishment for a program that has failed to win more than eight games in a season the last 14 years. The unquestioned jewel of this year’s class is Hudson, a consensus five-star prospect across the four recruiting services and a top-10 player in the country regardless of position. Hudson chose Texas Tech from a collection of 35 scholarship offers that included the likes of Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia, LSU, Oregon and Texas. If he signs with the Red Raiders, Hudson will instantly become the highest-rated signee in school history since 247Sports began recording data in 2000, edging former four-star defensive tackle Breiden Fehoko from the 2015 class.
I don’t know if there will be many more commits, the class is largely done with a surprise or two. And if you are curious about the transfer portal rankings, On3 has Texas Tech 20th overall with Colorado 1st, 24/7 Sports has Texas Tech 59th, and Rivals has Texas Tech 14th overall. That’s a decent range to work with.
Game Prediction
The public money, 58% of it, is on California which is really interesting. I think the Texas Tech offense will be better than the stats indicate with a healthy Morton and Brooks. With the spread at 1.5, it’s basically a pick’em and I’m a homer so I have no problem picking Texas Tech here and thinking that they win by 3 or so. That’s not a slap in the face to Cal. And advanced stats from Statsowar thinks that Cal wins by 3, so it’s likely going to be a close game.
INDEPENDENCE BOWL: CALIFORNIA v TEXAS TECH pic.twitter.com/KOZohyr7m1
— parker fleming (@statsowar) December 13, 2023